Lie: "We Are Not the House"· Fact: Kalshi owns Kalshi Trading LLC· Lie: "It's Peer-to-Peer"· Fact: 2.9 users lose for every 1 who wins· Lie: "We Are Not the House"· Fact: Kalshi owns Kalshi Trading LLC· Lie: "It's Peer-to-Peer"· Fact: 2.9 users lose for every 1 who wins·

KalshiLies

A dedicated record of Kalshi's documented deceptions.

Kalshi has spent tens of millions of dollars on lobbying and advertising in 2026, including billboards across Washington, D.C., Metro station wraps, national television, and slick microsites. These ads are built to push claims about how its platform works.

The claims are false.

Not "exaggerated." Not "in the eye of the beholder." Structurally, demonstrably, in-the-public-record false — contradicted by Kalshi's own corporate filings and the most comprehensive investigative reporting on prediction markets to date.

We are here to document and disprove their lies.

LIE: "WE ARE NOT THE HOUSE"
What Kalshi Says
"Kalshi Rule #3: We Aren't the House."
What's Actually True

Kalshi runs its own market maker on the same exchange Kalshi runs.

It's called Kalshi Trading LLC — a Kalshi affiliate that, per Kalshi's own regulatory filings, was "established as a profit-making enterprise" to support liquidity through spread trading.

A spread-trading market maker is compensated from the bid-ask spread captured on each customer fill, before the underlying event resolves.

Therefore, Kalshi Trading, LLC:

  • Trades on the same exchange Kalshi operates
  • Trades directly against retail customers, and
  • Profits on many customer trades, win or lose.

That's the house. And others agree:

  • The federal class action complaint filed in the Southern District of New York states that Kalshi Trading LLC "is not a peer; it is the House."
  • The Wisconsin Department of Justice, in its 2026 complaint, described Kalshi Trading LLC as operating as a "market maker" on Kalshi's own exchange to "equalize supply and demand."

Who's On the Other Side of Your Trade

Not your peers. Three institutional firms with stakes in the platform:

  • Kalshi Trading LLC — Kalshi's own affiliated market maker, established in Kalshi's regulatory filings as a profit-making enterprise trading on the same exchange Kalshi operates
  • Susquehanna International Group — onboarded as Kalshi's first institutional market maker, April 2024
  • Jump Trading — took an equity stake in Kalshi in February 2026 in exchange for liquidity

You aren't trading against your neighbor.

You're trading against institutional market makers – including Wall Street firms that own a piece of Kalshi.

LIE: "IT'S PEER-TO-PEER"
What Kalshi Says
Traders meet on a neutral exchange. May the best forecaster win.
What's Actually True
  • 67% of all profits on leading platforms go to 0.1% of accounts.
  • Fewer than 2,000 customers combined have netted nearly half a billion dollars.

Who the "Peers" Really Are

Not casual customers.

  • A college student in Charlottesville runs a top-5 Kalshi trader on crypto markets. His firm pays $200,000 a year for live data feeds and executes tens of thousands of trades per day.
  • A SoHo firm of college dropouts, backed by a Silicon Valley crypto accelerator, runs $1M across Kalshi and Polymarket. Asked about competitors, the founder told the WSJ: "Our only competition is market makers."
  • Susquehanna trades hundreds of millions of dollars through Kalshi each week.

Your "peer" has a Bloomberg terminal, a data science team, and an algorithm.

The Math on Kalshi

  • 2.9 users lose money for every 1 user who wins. — Kalshi's own spokesperson, to the Wall Street Journal

Even When Retail Users Are Right, They Lose

  • University of San Diego research found that retail users on prediction markets often pick the correct outcome — and still lose money.
  • Why? Algorithmic firms get in earlier. They get better prices. By the time a casual user enters, the spread has already been captured.
  • "Retail investors, despite being correct, are losing money." — Joshua Della Vedova, USD School of Business

This is just the first of many lies. Stay tuned for more.